Johannes Vogel, vice-president of the FDP’s deputy parliamentary group and spokesman for its pension policy, Christian Dürr, has jointly developed a proposal that should implement the old ‘provision’ in Germany. The central element of the concept is the introduction of a ‘statutory share pension’, with which the insured must participate in the returns that can be achieved with widely diversified investments on the international capital markets (Versicherungsbote Report).
In its concept paper, the FDP emphasizes that no one has to spend more money than they do today and that especially low-income people will “first benefit from the opportunities offered by global stock markets” .
The liberals prof. Martin Ruhr originated from University Bochum. Werding is no stranger to political Berlin and has been calculating load capacity for the federal finance ministry for many years.
Not enough pension through pay-as-you-go financing
A summary of the professor: “We can no longer finance adequate pensions through the pay-as-you-go system.” To implement the FDP’s proposals, however, “temporarily increased federal funds” are required for statutory pension insurance. So what exactly does the FDP want to stop. Nevertheless, so they studyThe level of federal debt will fall from 40 percent of the GDP of the 2040s at present to slightly less than 30 percent and below 40 percent to 2060. According to the researchers at Bochum, the loan level would go over 50 percent without improvement. Suppose – as the study states, that the reform will be implemented in 2022, 2060 will be the year in which the FDP concept will develop its full impact. Then, entry pensioners would have paid in share pensions during their entire employment phase. The study also stated: “The burden on the active insured through contributions to the overall system of statutory old age provision – pay-as-you-go public pension schemes and statutory share pensions – is greater than at any time. Temporarily. Reforms due to additional federal funds funded from. In the long run, the contribution rate for the statutory old age provision will evolve much more favorably than current law. ”
Immigration as the key to success
Another point of study: immigration of skilled workers. This is an important lever: “If we succeed in realizing immigration on the scale of classic immigration countries like Canada or New Zealand, the concept of statutory share pensions can be applied permanently without breaching the debt break,” And the contribution rate and security level statutory aging provisions evolve far more favorably than the original version ”, it says in the study’s results.
Durr and Vogel see it this way. In my concept paper It states: “The Federal Republic of Germany must ultimately see itself as a real country of immigration and a real immigration society. This is generally correct and necessary with a view to our society, economy and our social system. Everyone is still unable to understand how important immigrants are skilled workers for an aging industrial and service society. We all get solid public budgets, in which investment in security, education and infrastructure is not squeezed by ever-increasing subsidies. ”
Assume: 6.5 percent return
Now. Statutory share pension ‘should be sufficient. To calculate potential performance, Drs. Werding assumed 6.5 percent per month. Pro. Verding is about a basis that is “rather than historical data on moderate assumptions” that can be achieved long-term with an international investment strategy based on stocks.