Tuesday, December 21, 2021
heat waves of more than 60 degrees
Climate researcher warns of new refugee movements
Rapidly rising average temperatures in some regions of the world could make entire cities uninhabitable in the future. So climate researchers Leliveld expect large-scale migration movements from these hotspots of climate change.
According to climate researcher Jos Lelieveld, global warming will hit the Middle East and North Africa especially hard and will trigger a new influx of refugees. Mainz’s director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry said the region has developed into a hotspot for climate change and is warming much faster than other regions.
The scientists explained that heat waves lasting weeks at 56 degrees Celsius, or more than 60 degrees in cities, could make many areas uninhabitable to humans and animals in the latter half of this century. “Even a camel can’t survive in this heat.” In turn, heat waves combined with other factors such as rapid population growth will increase migration pressures.
“Disaster, but not a fictional scenario”
If global warming is not stopped, Leliveld said the region’s average summer temperature could rise six degrees in the summer. “This is a disaster scenario, but not a hypothetical scenario,” he said. Since 1980, the average temperature there has increased by about 2 degrees. For comparison: at the climate conference, countries committed to containing global warming at 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.
According to the scientist, the effect of increase in temperature will be especially on the Gulf countries. But other sectors will also have to bear the consequences. Leliveld said Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Israel, but also Egypt, will suffer from more droughts in the future. Deserts expanded. Parts of Syria and Iraq experienced severe droughts this year, causing severe crop failures and rising food prices.
Leliveld said increasing rainfall in tropical regions of Asia will be offset by reduced rainfall in the subtropical Middle East and North Africa in the future. This puts the sector in a vicious circle. “Less rainfall leads to more drought, which makes these areas even hotter,” he said. The predictions can be well supported by the data: “There’s a little bit of uncertainty.”
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