Göttingen (dpa) – With comparatively low numbers and vaccination progress, steps that are clearly open since June may be possible, as calculated by Göttingen researchers.
Then abandonment of “medium measures” such as hygiene rules and big events would suffice, said Viola Prizemann of the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization. It relates to the seven-day incident “well below 50”, so that health officials can still follow the contact in good and good times. “If the number of cases were high, we wouldn’t be ready until late summer,” the physicist said.
If a mutated version of coronovirus emerged, which is quite insensitive to vaccination, the prognosis would change. “It will return to us in a few weeks or months,” said Priesemann. In calculating their model, the Göttingen researchers assumed that there is no so-called exodus variant.
“It is an illusion to think that we will open first and there will be only a few more cases,” Priesemann explained. Unfortunately it is the case that the vaccination of the 80s is not sufficient to adequately relieve intensive care units. Each young person is at only one percent or less risk of going to the intensive care unit. “The problem is simply sheer numbers.”
In addition, there are several aspects to consider: even with vaccination, severe disease courses are possible. Not everyone accepts vaccination offers. Children will not be vaccinated and can act as a kind of reservoir to infect the virus and others, Prissimon listed examples. “Immunization is not right.”
From the point of view of autumn, it is unclear whether immunity will decrease over time after vaccination. There are early signs of this, Prismann said. In addition, the weather changes again and may favor the spread of the virus.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210330-99-30841 / 2