Donors meeting at Mar-a-Lago: Biden wants to run, Trump will win

Donors meeting at Mar-a-Lago: Biden wants to run, Trump will win

Mar-a-Lago. in Spendertreffen
Biden wants to run, Trump will win

Roland Peters. From

US President Biden wants to run for a second term. His predecessor Trump is already diligently preparing for 2024. One of his advisers says he “absolutely wants revenge.” Trump currently has excellent prospects for success.

What might the re-election campaign look like? “He can hardly do his job at the moment!”, it said in a similar discussion announcement on Monday with famed TV presenter Hannity about US President Joe Biden: “Despite his extremely poor approval ratings” Democrat running again But how should he campaign in his condition? These are questions the conservative television broadcaster Fox News is trying to woo viewers. The announcement has been accompanied by a picture of the president showing him with his mouth folded like a cartoon. reason? Biden’s spokeswoman previously said the president plans to run for a second term in 2024.

It is common for this to happen. But not in the age that Democrats are. After another election victory, Biden will be 82 when he takes office. Last year, the conservative media made an issue of Biden’s allegedly poor health by repeatedly portraying him as “unfit for office.” Recently, Biden cut a health check up Overall good, but has shown some worsening year on year, including stricter movements and a more frequent cough.

It is extremely difficult to predict the future development. It cannot be denied that the position of the President will indeed worsen in the next few years, when Vice President Kamala Harris may try to become the first woman to move into the White House. But it can also be quite different.

Trump operates in five states

Whoever runs for Democrat, many in political Washington strongly believe that the Republican opponent would be called Donald Trump. “Losing is never easy, no, not for me,” Trump said on Election Day 2020. He never publicly admitted his defeat. Others were and are guilty. The former president is currently focusing on the upcoming midterm elections, but apparently already has a first strategy in place for 2024. “Trump desperately wants to take revenge against Biden,” an adviser to the former president told a US magazine. “Politico”.

According to the magazine, his team of the five states that decided his defeat is already pushing voters at his own pace. The results are promising from Trump’s point of view. The former president would win relatively clearly against Biden: Arizona with a lead of eight percent, Georgia with three percent, Michigan with twelve percent, Pennsylvania with six percent and Wisconsin with ten percent. “Poll after poll shows that former President Trump is still an £800 gorilla in the Republican Party and will be its candidate if he runs,” the senior pollster said.

Trump lost less than three percent to Biden in all five states, and he never completely stopped campaigning there. He has made appearances in these parts of the country four times since his defeat and publicly supports dozens of candidates for various offices. Trump will be better prepared now than he was in his successful 2016 election, his own electoral base and his universe of supporting media and campaign organizations that have never stopped collecting money from the population. Another event for large Republican donors is to take place at Trump’s golf resort Mar-a-Lago in early December.

The parity between money spent and electoral success is great for Congress candidates. Causality is hard to establish, but politicians who invest more money in campaigning than their competitors have the best chance of success, US data medium mentioned “FiveThirtyEight”, From 2000 to 2016, nearly 80 percent of the highest spenders in the Senate and more than 90 percent of the candidates in the House of Representatives won. A relationship was also established between the money spent and the percentage of votes cast. Proven, As of 2010, there were virtually no restrictions on electoral funding in the US. The duel between Biden and Trump was the costliest election campaign ever.

Regardless of who is competing against whom in 2024, the signs are already not good for Biden as he heads to Congressional elections in 2022. In the last seven mid-term elections, the ruling party has suffered significant defeats in five. But looking beyond 2024, Democrats will be hoping Republicans will move to the right in Congress after winning the election. This could spell trouble for Democrats; A similar effect was seen in 2020 when Americans voted in record numbers to get rid of Trump.

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