Dr. Karen Zoffle | 01/22/2021
When SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, ie circulating in a population, most people are exposed to the virus for the first time in childhood. Infections at this age are usually mild and result in immunity that protects people from severe illness later in life, but does not prevent regular infections.
Re-infection is possible within a year, but if it happens, the symptoms are mild and the virus is quickly cleared from the body. This demonstrates the need for SARS-CoV-2 to differentiate the components of immunity: how long does immunity prevent severe disease, and how long immunity that ultimately prevents transmission? This period can be very different, ”Dr. Jenny Lavine from Emory University in Atlanta.
Kovid-19 less dangerous than future flu?
The scientist has developed a model to predict how the clinical picture of Kovid-19 will change over the next few years. This assumes that immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is similar to other, long-known human coronavir. With the model, she comes to the conclusion that the mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 can fall below the virus flu.
“Immunological indicators suggest that mortality and vaccination needs may decline rapidly in the near future. So we should do our utmost to get the young epidemic on its way to an end,” Prof. Otar from the Department of Epidemiology at Penn State University Björnstad said.
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