Winter wind, the scent of spring, westerly weather conditions and a polar vortex split

Temperatures in the coming days will be much closer to spring than winter and exceeding the +15 degree mark at some places cannot be ruled out. The likelihood of winter in Germany also depends on whether the polar vortex may stabilize or whether it experiences more disruptions.

sIn the next few days, the stormy winds will drive cold winds over the northern half. Particularly on Tuesday and Thursday, gusty winds can be expected over flat areas and exposed places and coastal areas. gust of wind Possible (wind forecast).

abnormally high temperature

The wind not only brings a lot of clouds and temporary rain over Germany, it also brings an unusually light wind from the southwest directions into Germany. So by the end of the week it may be possible from +10 to +15 degrees and in the west to +17 degrees. Even New Year’s Eve will be unusually mild from +8 to +12 degrees. More information: Weather January.

Weather Forecast According to European (left) and American (right) weather models: the end of the year does not look like the beginning of winter
www.meteociel.fr

Weather forecast according to the European weather model: axis of high pressure tilts within the polar vortex

Weather Forecast Compared to yesterday, the European is turning 180 degrees, which has its origin in the polar vortex and which we have already mentioned.

High pressure area between Siberia and Canada

Firstly it looks like a high pressure wave over Europe and second over the Aleutian will come together towards the end of the year. But the merger fails and the higher enters the polar vortex from the Aleutian Islands. But unlike yesterday, Europeans calculate their Weather Forecast An axis training between Canada and Siberia. The conclusion from this development is clear and precise.

Atlantic frontal area success

If you want to know what’s going on in Germany in January about winter, you’ll have to consider regionalization, which will start during the coming week, but then Stammer device. Is it about the permanent establishment of regionalization, or at least only one more? Flash in the panAs seen more often in the last 21 months.

With the high pressure area between Siberia and Canada, Europeans provide an argument that supports the stability of western weather conditions and allows it to continue into the first decade of January. Cold winds are being transferred to Canada and moving from eastern Canada to Newfoundland.

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It creates one depression after another over the Atlantic, pushing towards Germany and thus creating a stable low pressure channel over the Atlantic. That is what stability means and Europeans today show very clearly how time is slowly running out.

A high pressure area between Siberia and Canada fuels westerly weather conditions
Weather Forecast According to the European weather model: a high pressure area between Siberia and Canada fuels westerly weather conditions
www.meteociel.fr

Weather forecast based on US weather models: an unusual polar vortex split

The type of a polar vortex split is still faked, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that winter has begun in Europe.

polar vortex split in new year

A polar vortex split, however, greatly improves the chances of winter weather conditions, as the cards are basically replaced with splits. The turbulent way in which this can happen is shown in Weather Forecast America is very influential today.

In the period from January 1 to January 3, a high pressure core extends from the Aleutian Islands into the polar vortex and connects high above the European Arctic Ocean. Axle connection between Canada and Siberia will not be possible. By January 5, the axis will be retreating north and pivoting in the direction of Canada, simultaneously looking for a connection to Siberia. The high is at a critical point.

By January 7, high pressure will increase over the Aleutian Islands and form a wedge across the polar vortex towards Siberia. Was it just a matter of attitude before? polarwirebellsplits, it will be on 7th January. The polar vortices initially try to counteract this development, but fail miserably and turn into a January 10 completely desolate impression,

Winter becomes optional from places in between

In Germany, Austria and Switzerland, the western-oriented core current dominates the season, causing stormy winds and temporary rainfall until January 7. Temperatures are very mild for the time of year, with +5 to +10 degrees. It varies with the polar vortex division. Zonalization falls asleep and general weather conditions begin to deteriorate. Cold air reaches Germany from the north, and by January 10, winter weather events can be expected, with colder and wetter values ​​of +0 to +5 degrees from the central places.

Different Stages of a Polar Vortex Split
Weather Forecast According to the American Weather Model: Different Stages of a Polar Vortex Split
www.meteociel.fr

In short: light first, then wet and cool

Mitigation comes and peaks between 30 December and 3 January with temperatures of +8 degrees at 1,400 meters. This shows how intense the mitigation will be at higher altitudes.

The control run then calculates the decrease in temperature level, which is very high, but the average value of the control run remains at +0 to +2 degrees until 7 January at an altitude of 1,400 m. That is and remains very light for the time of year. The control run showed signs of normalization only towards the end of the first ten days of January. In other words, the first ten days of January can be quite hot. In terms of temperature, the mean values ​​at low altitudes fluctuate between +8 and +12 degrees in early January, between +4 and +6 degrees on January 7, and +2 and +6 degrees on January 11. Is. A cold, wet and not too chill trend.

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no stable weather development

The period from December 27 to December 30 and January 3 to 10 will most likely be dominated by gravure printing systems. In the intervening period, an intermediate high becomes noticeable with a dry phase.

Warm start of the year on the left, trend of cold and wet weather on the right
Weather Forecast Runs according to the mean of all controls: warm start of the year on the left, trend towards later wet and cold weather on the right
www.meteociel.fr
Control’s temperature forecast runs
Surname temperature spectrum average temperature value
January 1st from +6
+16 grade
from +8
+10 grade
January 5 from +0
+12 grade
from +5
+7 grade
10. January from -6
+10 grade
from +2
+5 grade
Chart Temperature January 2021
The January 2021 control probabilities are very cold, normal, very warm compared to the long period mean (1961 to 1990).

is the polar vortex divided into weather forecast Confirmed or denied, we’ll explain at this point in an update of the winter forecast at around 8:15 pm today.

Weather forecast update from 8:08 pm onwards.

Weather Forecast American confirmed the polar vortex split during the day, which began on January 2 and reached a climax on January 5.

The split of a polar vortex over Europe doesn’t necessarily mean that winter has started, especially as clearly shown in tonight’s forecast.

Polar Vortex divides winter season unevenly

The division occurs between the Aleutian Islands and Greenland and does not extend to the Atlantic. Against this background, the Atlantic frontal region may turn and act as if nothing had happened until January 5 and head towards Germany with gusty winds, lots of clouds, some precipitation and light air masses.

In the period from January 5 to January 8, the high pressure axis tilts within the polar vortex and strengthens the connection from the Aleutian Islands to Siberia. This process literally moves the remaining polar vortex toward Canada and reawakens the Atlantic frontal region, keeping the likelihood of strong wind events over Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The flow pattern begins to decline towards the end of the first ten days of January and enables the character of cold, wet weather at low altitudes with winter ambiances from mid-elevation.

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Initially, the details are little relevant. more important to him weather trends For the time being, how will the zonalization prevail and what will be its intensity. And such a polar vortex split is a strong indication that the stability of western weather conditions may be questioned. If the polar vortex splits, there will be some surprises in the days to come weather trends Prediction models can recognize.

The phases of the polar vortex split on January 4 (left), January 8 (Wednesday) and January 11 (right).
Weather Forecast According to the US weather model: The phases of the polar vortex split on January 4 (left), January 8 (Wednesday), and January 11 (right).
www.meteociel.fr

marginal factor

At the start of the new year, strong minor warming is still expected at the stratospheric level, but it may not develop into further major warming. In the lower layers of the air, there is less chance of an impact on the weather. At least – one might think – the outlook for major warming has been upheld. Wind speed remains extremely positive at stratospheric altitudes of +140 to +180 km/h. A wind reversal is – in its current state – unrecognizable.

The AO index value, which – to put it simply – describes the state of the polar vortex, is calculated in a completely negative range. The positive signals of the past few days have been withdrawn. it means? Basically what Americans are imitating. A weak to turbulent polar vortex with an inclination towards a polar vortex split.

The parameter, which is more important for Europe – the NAO index – showed a slightly positive trend in January, suggesting a high probability of a western-oriented fundamental trend.

cold and wet weather

If one looks at the mean value of all control runs, the mild phase is confirmed by January 3 with subsequent wet and cooler weather and increased precipitation activity. Winter season remains optional from central places.

Minor warming on the left, which is of little relevance to the season, with the approach of a major warming, the mean value of the control moves to the right
Weather Forecast After Personal Controls is out: Winter editions of Controls run until January 4th
www.meteociel.fr

european weather forecast

Finally, take a quick look at Weather Forecast European weather model. The polar vortex split is only indicated, but this morning’s key difference is clearly visible. High is further west and begins to disrupt the zonalization before it can pick up pace.

Minor warming on the left, which is of little relevance to the season, with the approach of a major warming, the mean value of the control moves to the right
Weather Forecast After Personal Controls is out: Winter editions of Controls run until January 4th
www.meteociel.fr
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